消费股

受这次的金融风暴影响最低的就是消费股。所以，星期五就去逛了逛据Jusco，搜集一些在我的watchlist里的股票的一些资料。对象-F&N, NESTLE.

F&N Holding
所有品牌-coca cola, sarsi, sprite, F&N, 100plus

最大的竞争者- Permanis Sdn Bhd （100% 属于 CI Holding Bhd)
所有品牌-pepsi, kickapo, A&W, mirinda, gatorade, Excel, 7up

两间公司都有著名的品牌。对于我而言，难以分辨到底哪一间的市场占有率比较强。于是，我就在那里闲逛了几圈，看看那个品牌有较多的人喜爱。逛了大概一个小时吧，结果发现，100plus, sprite, coca-cola 都有人买，Permanis 的品牌却没人爱。在产品架上也可以发现，pepsi被排得满满的没人要，而100plus和coca-cola却所剩无几。

当然，我也不会只看一间Jusco的销量来判断那一间公司有较大的市场占有率。所以，我比较了一下他们各自的财务状况，无疑的，不管是EPS, 公司的成长，股价的起伏，都是F&N值得投资的多。

Nestle

而Nestle呢，更加不用说。Nestle 的主要食品Milo，几乎是每一个家庭主妇都会买两包。我公司也有五六架Nestle得饮水机。Milo, Nescafe...一天之中就要开好几包。Nestle的股价从以前到现在都是呈上升趋势的。只有在98, 99年小跌了一点。而在这一次的风暴中，完全没被影响，想买地一点的价钱都卖不到。我认为合理价是25-26。

Malaysia Economy Crisis

Let chat a little about Malaysia Economy crisis in this year - 2008. As what i know, this crisis caused by 3 reason :

1) Malaysia's Politic issue
2) US financial crisis/economy crisis
3) Crude oil price drop


1) Malaysia Politic issue
Malaysia stock market has a significant drop after election in March. People has no confidence to stock market especially Government link Company's stock(GLC) due to unstability of our government. The political issues has not end yet, that may be end up on next year..

2) US financial crisis/economy crisis
US financial crisis caused Lehman Brother bankcrupt, AIG nearly to bankcrupt if no government support and etc. Although Malaysia's bank has not much impact of this crisis, but investor was scared and try to sell off the stocks in hand. The economy in US is really down. But why US's economy will impact to Asia. Why Asia is always depend to US?

This is because many product is made in Asia and export to US.
Example:
if Asia produce clothes and export to US, when the US face economy crisis, US people just need to control their expenses and do not buy any clothes if not needed. But Asia people will face jobless because of the sales of the clothes is bad and company need to cut cost and try to fire some employee to make the company's earning and expenses become balance to pass this economy crisis smoothly.

Therefore, someone said if US getting a flu, Asia will get a serious illness.

3) Crude oil price drop
Recently, KLSE index has drop till 800-850. The main reason is because of the dropping of crude oil price. Crude oil price drop has negative and also positive impact to Malaysia.

Negative impact: Malaysia's economy depends on plantation industry, Crude Oil price drop means plantation industry making loss. Economy down.

Positive impact: Petrol price will drop accordingly, other material price will drop. Inflaction rate Drop.